The princes are prancing but diplomacy must be more than a Deal. If the dying and suffering end that is a victory. The negotiators knew an agreement focused on the narrower issues of a cease-fire, hostage and prisoner exchange may be achievable. However, dealing with the tougher questions around Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza and Hamas’s disarmament may be problematic. This ceasefire agreement may not be a road to peace in the Middle East. There is no evidence of the political will needed for an effective peace deal. Most wars end with exhausted belligerents making some kind of agreement. The war in Gaza has become one of those. Ceasefires are often violated in their early stages. The ones that survive tend to be based on an agreement made by warring parties who have decided that their best option is to make them work. The danger is that the Gaza ceasefire lacks those underpinnings. Can we step back and “look under the hood” as the expression goes?
President Donald Trump deserves credit for the Israel/Gaza agreement. Left for Netanyahu and the leadership of Hamas, there is the probability that the destruction in Gaza would have continued into a third year. Trump’s interest may be motivated by a close relationship with Qatar — a Gulf state ally where he, his family, friends, and the U.S. have increasingly significant ties. For much of Israel’s war on Gaza, Trump showed little interest in the suffering of Palestinians. Trump called for the removal of all Palestinians from Gaza so that he could rebuild it into a “Middle East Riviera.” That changed when Israeli fighter jets launched 10 missiles at a residential building in the Qatari capital of Doha in early September. The building in Doha housed Hamas political leaders and their families who at the time were engaged in peace talks with the Qataris serving as mediators. Trump denounced the strike on Qatar, which he called a “close ally of the United States, that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker Peace.” A U.S. ceasefire proposal followed several weeks later, which Trump pressured Netanyahu to accept.
Qatar is one of America’s key allies in the region, and the site of the biggest US military base in the Middle East with 10,000 American troops stationed at a strategic air base. Qatar has committed to hundreds of billions of dollars in investments. The Trump 20-Point Plan declares that the Gaza Strip will be demilitarized, secured, and governed by a committee including Palestinians. The 20-point plan includes a “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump himself and including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Trump has provided personal guarantees he would not let Israel abandon the deal and resume the war. This convinced Hamas to accept the plan. What happens if Trump loses interest or becomes distracted by other crises? The plan has only vague language about a “credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination” and “statehood,” not the two-state solution demanded by Arab nations. The deal relies primarily on Trump maintaining pressure on the principals. This requires him to remain engaged, week after week and month after month, with a broad spectrum of actors. Focus, stamina, and coalition-building are not the president’s strong suits.
At the time Netanyahu ordered the air strike he seemed intent on crushing Israel’s enemy so comprehensively, that Israel would be able to dictate the future of Gaza. Trump dismissed Netanyahu’s justification for the target, which did not kill the Hamas leadership. The strike infuriated Trump. Qatar is a place where his sons have been doing a lucrative business. Qatar has long been a key U.S. ally, but since Trump’s reelection, the Persian Gulf nation has forged an especially close alliance with Trump and his inner circle. Qatar has pumped billions of dollars into U.S. companies over the past year — in many cases enriching companies and business ventures linked to Trump’s family and friends. Meanwhile, it has forged deepening ties with the U.S. military. Whether it was a result of geopolitics, personal profit, or some mix of the two, Israel’s attack on Qatar appears to have been a spark that spurred Trump into action on Gaza. It backfired on Israel, that it changed the balance of the debate inside of the administration,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Trump welcomed the accolades he received from the various world leaders he addressed at the ceasefire agreement signing. He told, “All I’ve done all my life is deals. The greatest deals just sort of happen. That’s what happened right here. And maybe this is going to be the greatest deal of them all,” he said. Without question, Trump can claim credit for the ceasefire and hostage exchange deal. Qatar, Türkiye, and Egypt used their leverage with Hamas to force it to accept. The agreement was for a ceasefire and an exchange of hostages for prisoners. It is not a peace agreement, or even the start of a peace process.
Trump has proclaimed that his Gaza deal, as it stands, will end generations of conflict between Arabs and Jews over the land between the river Jordan and the Mediterranean Sea. He insists too that it will lead to a broader peace across the Middle East. If he really believes that the job of making peace is done, then he is deluding himself. It required a sustained focus, hard diplomatic work, and a decision by the two sides in the fight that the time has come to make painful sacrifices and compromises
We have all these players, including Trump, who are now invested into this working, and it sounds funny to say, but we are hoping that this “corruption” works in support of this enduring ceasefire,” Duss said, referring to Trump’s business relationships with Gulf nations.
Years ago, a college professor said that international relations are personal relations on a larger scale. If two neighbors are fighting, the Hatfields and the McCoys, taking away their weapons may stop the physical fighting, but it may not reduce the cause, the anger and hatred. If the Israeli-Gaza agreement stops the physical destruction and hurt, wonderful. If we honestly believe that it equates to peace I hope and pray, we are correct. In business we often hear how two businesses “cut a deal.” This deal may bring down the business temperature until the next time. Diplomacy is critical to us all for actual “peace on earth.” I believe that diplomacy must be more than “cutting a deal.” The president of the United States is the most powerful person in the world. The president-elect recites the following oath in accordance with Article II, Section I of the U.S. Constitution:
“I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”
Has he furthered that goal with this Israeli-Gaza ceasefire agreement? We can all hope, but time will tell.
Phil's Personal Perspectives 